The Baker Mayfield Effect

By Kyle Langston
Twitter: @kylelangston49

Monday June 11^th, the date that Lake Travis class of ’21 quarterback Nate Yarnell received his first offer from the University of Houston Cougars. Though isn't it odd that an up and coming program with a promising 2018 season would spend their time looking at a freshman quarterback. Houston comes off of a 7-win season behind potential 2018 defensive player of the year Ed Oliver. To justify this, Yarnell must have out of this world stats from his freshman year, but upon inspection of the 2017 varsity roster he is nowhere to be found. So we see for perhaps the first time ever, a competitive Division 1 football program extending an offer to a freshman quarterback who has never played a snap of varsity football. The reason? Nate attends the same high school that 2018 first overall pick Baker Mayfield once did.

The case of Nate Yarnell is not one that stands alone. During Mayfield’s rather brief Heisman acceptance speech last December, he still found time to pay respects to his alma mater, telling the Lake Travis coaching staff they “instilled a work ethic mentality in him that has never left.” Since then, Lake Travis quarterbacks have been the beneficiaries of a multitude of high caliber scholarship offers. Class of 2018 quarterback Mathew Baldwin has already enrolled at powerhouse Ohio State University after just one season under center for the Cavaliers. Prior to Mayfield’s rise to stardom Baldwin had been committed to play at Colorado State University. Baldwin’s backup Hudson Card saw a similar uptick in interest, starting just one game at quarterback his sophomore campaign and still managed to pick up offers from Oklahoma State, Auburn, Alabama, and Ohio State before committing to the University of Texas.

One could argue that this is nothing more than a talented coaching staff that does a great job exposing their players. Why is it then, that this coaching staff could not get Baker Mayfield himself a look from a single power five school? Mayfield is famously the two-time walk on turned Heisman, but it is important to note that he was just that, a walk-on at Texas Tech. Surely Mayfield, who was 25-2 with a state championship during his time in high school, would have a more impressive offer than the current junior varsity quarterback. The same argument can be made for Baylor Bears quarterback Charlie Brewer. Brewer was in the Lake Travis class of ’17 where he put together a historic senior season in which he not only won a state championship of his own, but also broke the national record for completion percentage in a season at an astounding 77.3% (MaxPreps). Brewer received a measly two offers, one from SMU and one from a rebuilding Baylor Bears team.

This phenomenon in which players of similar caliber receive drastically more impressive offers after proving significantly less is demonstrated perfectly at Lake Travis High School. Players from before and after Mayfield’s rise to college football dominance showed similar statistics, played with the same coaching staff, and were proven winners, yet were looked at radically different by college scouts. It seems as though the earlier players were viewed with the mentality that they weren’t good enough until they proved they were. Whereas this new generation of players are given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to their football abilities.

            
While this effect can be seen to different extents all around the country, the case of Mayfield and Lake Travis High School exhibits it consistently and tremendously. Thus, I have decided to coin the term ‘The Baker Mayfield Effect’ to describe it. Unfortunately, the Baker Mayfield effect is just a component of a much larger issue in the scouting industry in general. Too often scouts take the approach of not wanting to get in trouble for who they scout. The practical outcome of this is that guys get scouted on superficial things such as height and the popularity of their high school. It is necessary for college scouts across the nation to go back to scouting kids based on their skill level and passion for the game, as this will produce more opportunities for athletes who truly love the game as well as produce better overall product for the NCAA.